Arup’s 4see model – getting to grips with a country’s capacity to invest

The Smith School welcomed Dr Simon Roberts (Associate Director, Arup) to give a talk on Arup’s 4see model.

Dr Simon Roberts Seminar Slides

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Seminar Summary: Dr Roberts’ will introduce the innovative 4see modelling framework, which combines socio, economic and energy aspects of a country in order to formulate physically consistent scenarios 20 years or more into the future. A 4see model is data-driven using official statistics, bringing together economic activity, capital stocks, employment, energy, travel and balance of payments. The methodology draws on analysis of past Gross Domestic Product and the other data to identify and explore the impact of various investment choices. The model is good for taking onboard trends, handling systemic interactions between sectors and identifying “the big stuff that makes a difference”. Using analysis from the 4see-GB model, Dr Roberts will present his latest research findings and put forward proactive steps the UK could take to reduce its oil dependency.

Speaker Biography: Dr. Simon Roberts is Associate Director and energy specialist in the Foresight, Innovation and Incubator Group of Arup, an international design and engineering consultancy. The Group is charged with maintaining a focus for logical, analytical thought about the many possible futures that Arup and its clients confront (www.driversofchange.com). Dr Roberts is a physicist with an industrial background in manufacturing and with a long-term involvement in sustainability and energy related matters. He is co-author of “Building integrated photovoltaics” (2009). Arup is a member of the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (www.peakoiltaskforce.net) and Dr Roberts was editor of its second report (2010).