SSEE Visiting Fellow, Dr Robert Burke, will look at the ways we can learn from the futures, in an upcoming seminar at the Smith School.

Seminar Summary: Essentially futures thinking and strategy development is about organisational and societal transformation. It involves an emphasis by individuals and organisations to think about the future and realize what new values, virtues and goals are needed for a better world.  What kind of world do you want to live and work in?  One futures working definition is: the science, art and ethics of negotiating and creating alternative societies and the ideas and meanings that govern them (Professor Sohail Inayatullah). The business case for futures theory and methodologies is that the futures tools and methodologies not only are challenging conventional business assumptions but they are also challenging the worldviews, myths and metaphors that created these assumptions in the first place. This is the link to the cultural immunity to change. This allows new thinking, whilst not necessarily an easy experience, to emerge which holds tremendous potential for forward thinking organisations to significantly increase their innovation through dialogue to co-evolve a desired emerging future as it occurs in the here-and-now as the ‘new’ strategy. This can be achieved as the approach to anticipatory action learning brings the context of futures studies that covers an empirical approach of predictions, an interpretive approach of understanding, ways of knowing and perspectives, a critical approach based on a philosophical and psychological platform and an action research approach through doing now what is meaningful and of purpose for our future. The role of leadership is to create preferred futures by providing direction, protection and order.  This always involves change, which always involves people, and always involves the future, and because of this always inevitably involves working with the anxiety change creates. However, anxiety need not be an inhibitor.  It can be productive. This seminar will look at ways we can learn from the future, as it emerges in the present, as a way of navigating anxiety productively in order to initiate change.

Speaker Biography: Robert is a Programme Director and futurist in residence at Melbourne Business School, Mt Eliza executive education. Rob has been a CEO/Managing Director for international companies, a consultant, and a student. He has worked in Australia, USA, Asia and the UK. He has broad corporate clients and he is a regular speaker at conferences and has authored articles on business and futures. Robert’s key focus is leadership within a futures context. He challenges managers to think outside of the known, and to consider alternative perspectives for reconsidering the purpose of organisations, and how senior managers might create more dignified and sustainable outcomes for their organisations and for our broader society.

This seminar is open to all and will take place at SSEE, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford, OX1 2BQ. Please arrive ten minutes ahead of the start time. We will not admit attendees who are over ten minutes late, so not to disturb the event. If you are attending as part of a group of 5 or more, please email events [at] smithschool.ox.ac.uk so that we know to expect you.

This is the conclusion of Energy, Transport & the Environment, the most comprehensive publication to date on the current mobility challenges. Edited by Professor Sir David King and Dr Oliver Inderwildi of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment (SSEE), University of Oxford, and due to be launched on May 17, its intention is to provide a clear, integrated roadmap for action by the whole transport sector.

With contributions by leading thinkers, the complexity of the mobility challenge is addressed from a range of viewpoints by industrialists, engineers, scientists, economists and political scientists, with all aspects of transport – people and freight; air, road, rail, ocean and waterways – being critically discussed.

“The mobility challenge is incredibly complex,” says Professor Sir David King, Director, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. “But what we’ve been amazed to see in editing this unique publication is that people from very different backgrounds and disciplines have highlighted very similar issues and challenges. Perhaps more importantly, however, they have also identified a range of quick wins.”

The new book specifically features expert opinion on energy; road; urban mobility; aviation; sea, rail and cargo, and finance and economics, with a foreword from US Secretary of State, and Nobel Prize Winner, Steven Chu.

Iain Conn, BP’s Chief Executive for refining and marketing, calls for energy policy alignment and coherence in the key economic blocs while Carl Burleson and Lourdes Maurice of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration conclude that the importance of balancing growth and environmental protection can only be achieved if forces are combined. They say that governments have to incentivise research and development of efficient aircraft and propulsion technologies, low-carbon aviation fuels must be pushed, and air traffic as well as airport management needs to be optimised. Only if all these measures are combined can emissions from aviation be cut while demand increases.

UBS’s Julie Hudson argues that finance is a powerful facilitator of change, but that policy makers also need to create the right conditions, while Professor Rod Smith of Imperial College sees railways as the easiest route to low carbon transport.

“Transforming transport systems over the coming decades is a necessity and the energy challenge is at its very heart,” concludes Dr Inderwildi. “The global economy is powered by oil, yet conventional oil reserves are limited. There are copious amounts of fossil resources remaining but the increasing environmental impact of using these resources is the severe challenge. That is why throughout this book authors call for bold, decisive and practical actions in order to provide future energy security while at the same time reducing emissions. Key to success will be large-scale investments in infrastructure and R&D.”

Energy, Transport & the Environment is published by Springer-Verlag and costs £180.

The briefing, by Dr Angela Wilkinson and Aisling O’Sullivan Darcy of the Smith School, set outs the critical challenges around water stress and how the drivers are diverse and interconnected.

Water Security, Risk and Society briefing

The call to action was issued today (Monday 23 April 2012) by Re|Source 2012, a new initiative created by the University of Oxford/Smith School of Enterprise and Environment and the Rothschild Foundation to tackle resource scarcity and highlight the business opportunities of sustainable management.

Re|Source co-director and Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Professor Sir David King said:

“The growing demand for food, energy and water by our growing and increasingly wealthy population is creating unprecedented pressures on our finite natural resources.

“The associated risks represent major opportunities for innovative business communities. Managing resources efficiently and effectively in a way that protects the environment and meets rising demand is the only productive way forward.” 

Meeting resource scarcity with better management is now rising rapidly up the agenda for governments, investors and businesses alike, as well as environment leaders and organisations.

It has become a critical security issue for corporate leaders trying to ensure a reliable supply of water and energy to manufacture products and for governments concerned about energy or food supplies.

The world is expected to grow from seven billion people today to nine billion by 2050 – to meet this growth it will need to produce 70 per cent more food – which will place consequential demands on water and energy.

More than 40 of the world’s top 100 economies are companies. Only eight per cent of the world’s fresh water is used by individuals – the rest is used by agriculture and industry.

Sir David, continued:

“Managing issues arising from resource scarcity and management is one of the over-riding issues of the first half of the 21st century. This is not just a matter of empty threats and negativity.

“There are huge advantages and opportunities for business, finance and government in responsible resource management. Companies and investors can enjoy far greater returns and rewards by effective resource management.

“This can be a win-win for everyone if we can engage the financial, business and environmental communities together to tackle these issues.”

To help drive this change Re|Source is bringing together 250 of the world’s most influential thinkers and leaders at Oxford University in July to start a new conversation on managing natural resources, longer-term thinking and aligning people and profit.

They will address key questions including: how will resource scarcity and volatility affect political, business and military planning? How can the financial community change to encourage CEOs and investee companies rise to these global resource challenges? And how will capitalism evolve in a resource constrained world?

 Key speakers include:

• Peter Brabeck, chairman of Nestle, world’s largest food company;
• Nobel Laureate economist Amartya Sen, one the world’s leading thinkers on sustainable food resourcing;
• James Cameron, internationally acclaimed film director, environmentalist and explorer;
• Paul Kagame, president of Rwanda;
• Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, minister of environment and water in Singapore;
• Rt Hon David Miliband MP, former UK foreign secretary;
• Jeremy Grantham, founder of GMO, one of the world’s biggest investment funds;
• Lord Browne, former CEO of BP energy and now partner of Riverstone Holdings LLC;
• David Nabarro, the UN’s Special Representative on Food Security and Nutrition;
• Plus senior military figures including Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, Climate and Energy Security Envoy of the UK Ministry of Defence and FCO, and high-ranking officials from NATO (to be confirmed).

Speakers will include: Professor Ricardo Garcia Herrera (Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the Department of Earth Physics II, in the Complutense University in Madrid) and Dr Valery Masson (Senior Scientist from MeteoFrance, Toulouse).

All seminars are open to all and will take place at SSEE, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford, OX1 2BQ. Please arrive ten minutes ahead of the start time. We will not admit attendees who are over ten minutes late, so not to disturb the event. If you are attending as part of a group of 5 or more, please email events [at] smithschool.ox.ac.uk so that we know to expect you.

Upcoming Seminars:

Seminar Two: Cities, Urban Weather and Adaptation to Climate Change: how to represent them in models?

Thursday 24 May 2012; 13:00.

Seminar Summary: To answer the climate change climatic challenge, all the States have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but also take measures of adaptation to limit the negative impacts of the global warming on the population, the economy and the environment. The question settles particularly on the scale of the city, which presents a strong concentration of populations and economic activities, in constant evolution and increase, as well as a strong sensibility to the climate change, due to the density and to city structure, which generates the urban island of heat. As resolution of Numerical Weather Prediction models increase, cities now represented in these models, influence the simulated weather above and near them (and then air pollution). The Town Energy Balance scheme represents the energy and water exchanges between the city and the atmosphere, using a (simplified) 3D geometry of buildings and rods. Some recent developments allow for a better prediction of impacts at the city or block scale: shadows of buildings not only on roads abut also on gardens (modifying the snow melt for example, as was shown in Montreal), building energy balance, including windows, heat and air-conditioning devices, in order to simulate energy consumption and CO2 releases. Some applications of the model will be presented in this seminar: Impact of air-conditioning in Paris (that will lead to more than a 2°C increase in the city in the future), influence of larger forests around Paris, and progress towards building tools to study climate change adaptation strategies in cities.

Speaker: Dr Valery Masson (Senior Scientist from MeteoFrance, Toulouse).

Previous Seminars:

Seminar One: Uncertainties in the estimation of the impact of climate change on human health

Seminar Summary: It is well known that extreme temperatures (heat and cold waves) have a significant impact on human health. Thus, recent mega heatwaves such as those occurring in 2003 and 2010 have resulted in dramatic increases of mortality with more than 50,000 attributed excess deaths in each case.  Climate change scenarios are characterized by an increase in the frequency of hot days and nights. However, this is not enough to assume future increases in human mortality associated with climate change, since social preparedness and vulnerability will also evolve. As for other types of impact, modeling of human health impacts must take this into consideration.  This presentation will analyse in detail the mortality patterns associated with extreme temperatures in recent episodes, focusing on the role of local factors. Finally the implications for modeling will be discussed.

Speaker Biography: Ricardo García Herrera is Professor of Atmospheric Physics in the Universidad Complutense in Madrid. The analysis of the variability and impacts of climate extremes is one of their main research lines. He has been Public Health director in different Spanish Regions and, in the last two years, President of the Spanish Agency for Meteorology (AEMET).

Seminars:

Seminar 1: Business in society: past, present, future

An exploration of the changing role of business in society, and how that role is managed.  It covers the nature of business’ role, the emergence of corporate responsibility as a management competency, and how sustainability affects our fundamental assumptions about what business is for.

Seminar 2: Taking transition seriously

Discussing the transition of business in the creation of a resource-constrained society and the redefining of prosperity. The seminar examines the process of transition, historical lessons on transition failure and success, and the main challenges that business needs to be aware of in the short, medium and long term.

Seminar 3: Creating new prosperities

An investigation of how business can, might, or won’t change as it seeks to prosper in resource-constrained societies.  The seminar covers strategy, performance, capital, management, and business education, and discusses if the search for resource-constrained prosperity represents the defining turnaround challenge for business in the twenty-first century.

Dr Simon Roberts Seminar Slides

Seminar Summary: Dr Roberts’ will introduce the innovative 4see modelling framework, which combines socio, economic and energy aspects of a country in order to formulate physically consistent scenarios 20 years or more into the future. A 4see model is data-driven using official statistics, bringing together economic activity, capital stocks, employment, energy, travel and balance of payments. The methodology draws on analysis of past Gross Domestic Product and the other data to identify and explore the impact of various investment choices. The model is good for taking onboard trends, handling systemic interactions between sectors and identifying “the big stuff that makes a difference”. Using analysis from the 4see-GB model, Dr Roberts will present his latest research findings and put forward proactive steps the UK could take to reduce its oil dependency.

Speaker Biography: Dr. Simon Roberts is Associate Director and energy specialist in the Foresight, Innovation and Incubator Group of Arup, an international design and engineering consultancy. The Group is charged with maintaining a focus for logical, analytical thought about the many possible futures that Arup and its clients confront (www.driversofchange.com). Dr Roberts is a physicist with an industrial background in manufacturing and with a long-term involvement in sustainability and energy related matters. He is co-author of “Building integrated photovoltaics” (2009). Arup is a member of the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (www.peakoiltaskforce.net) and Dr Roberts was editor of its second report (2010).

The study, the first to run so many simulations using a complex atmosphere-ocean climate model, addresses some of the uncertainties that previous forecasts, using simpler models or only a few dozen simulations, may have over-looked.

Importantly, the forecast range is derived from models that accurately reproduce observed temperature changes over the last 50 years.

The results suggest that the world is very likely to cross the ‘2 degrees barrier’ at some point this century if emissions continue unabated, and that those planning for the impacts of climate change need to consider the possibility of warming of up to 3 degrees (above the 1961-1990 average) by 2050 even on a mid-range emission scenario. This is a faster rate of warming than most other models predict.

The research was made possible because volunteers donated time to run the simulations on their home computers through climateprediction.net as part of the BBC Climate Change Experiment.

A report of the research is published in Nature Geoscience.

‘It’s only by running such a large number of simulations – with model versions deliberately chosen to display a range of behaviour – that you can get a handle on the uncertainty present in a complex system such as our climate,’ said Dr Dan Rowlands of Oxford University’s Department of Physics, lead author of the paper. ‘Our work was only possible because thousands of people donated their home computer time to run these simulations.’

‘Most forecasts of global warming are based on the range of results that different groups around the world happen to contribute to a model comparison. These groups don’t set out to explore the full range of uncertainty, which is why studies like ours are needed,’ said Professor Myles Allen, Faculty Associate of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and Department of Physics, Oxford University, an author of the paper and Principal Investigator of the climateprediction.net project.

Dr Ben Booth, Senior Climate Scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, an author of the paper, said:

‘There have been substantial efforts within the international community to quantify and understand the consequence of climate uncertainties for future projections. Perhaps the most ambitious effort to date, this work illustrates how the citizen science movement is making an important contribution to this field.’

Co-author Professor Dave Frame  of Victoria University of Wellington, Visiting Fellow of Oxford University’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said: ‘Ensembles like this are an innovative way of exploring a range of possible futures, and provide an exciting new resource for the climate adaptation and impact communities.’

The model used in the project was supplied by the UK Met Office and the work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Union FP6 WATCH and ENSEMBLES projects, the Oxford Martin School, the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, and Microsoft Research.

Seminar Summary: While innovation is critical to respond to climate challenges, relying on patents to provide incentives to invest in research may be inadequate. This seminar discussed political and legal problems in using intellectual property rights regimes to incentivize research, especially for technology intended for deployment in the developing world, and explored the viability of alternatives that rely on financial markets and the enforcement of private contracts.

The seminar slides can be found below, and please read the relevant paper, which was discussed.

Linda Cohen Seminar Slides

Innovation, Common Agency and Free Riding – Draft April 2012

Speaker Biography: Linda R. Cohen is Professor of Economics and Law at the University of California at Irvine.  Professor Cohen’s research lies at the intersection of economics, law and political economy.  She has published extensively on the economics of energy policy and innovation policy.  Her current work focuses on the relationship between regulatory policy and innovation policy in addressing climate change and on the feasibility and effectiveness of alternative innovation policies in the absence of strong markets.