Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Uncertainties of Climate Change

Smith School Visiting Fellow, James Murray, gave a talk on Peak Oil in October.

Jim Murray Presentation Slides

James Murray

 Seminar Summary: The argument of Peak Oil is that production of oil, a finite non-renewable geological resource, will ultimately reach a maximum and then decline. There is no debate that this will happen, but there is disagreement about when it will occur. Peak Oil does not mean “running out of oil” but when the peak has been reached, about 50% of the oil that will be ultimately extracted will have been used. The production and resources of coal can be assessed with similar tools and we can assess the ultimate resources of coal available both regionally and globally. There are both short term and long range issues. We see the manifestation of the imbalance between supply and demand in the steady increase in the price of oil since 1999. The most significant long term impacts relate to the IPCC scenarios predicting CO₂ production from now to 2100. Energy may pass climate change as the “hot button” issue. We need to solve the energy issue in order to move forward on climate. The solutions are the same – burn less oil and coal: make less CO₂. The issues of Peak Oil and Coal have not been given serious consideration by the climate change community and the impacts could be profound. For this reason it is important to have an open discussion of the data and the issues.

Speaker Biography: James W. Murray received a BA in Geology from the University of California in March, 1968 and a PhD in Chemical Oceanography from the MIT-Woods Hole Oceanographic Joint program in 1973. He has been at the University of Washington since 1973 where he is presently a Professor of Oceanography, an adjunct Professor of Chemistry and a Senior Fellow in the Joint Institute for Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans (JISAO). He regularly teaches courses in Aquatic Chemistry, Chemical Oceanography, Environmental Chemical Modeling and seminars on Climate Change. In 2000 he founded the University of Washington, Program on Climate Change and was Director from 2000 to 2006.