news
16 September 2024

Energy access may be overestimated for 87 million people

Estimated reading time: 2 Minutes

Research published today in Nature Energy compares data from two key agencies tracking progress towards SDG 7 on energy and finds that 87 million people in sub-Saharan Africa may not have access to electricity, despite being counted as such.

This represents almost half (45%) of total reported progress towards electrification in the region, say the authors. The uncertainty is due to major discrepancies in data collection approaches by international organisations, and the paper calls for methodological standardisation of what ‘counts’ as energy access in order to track meaningful progress. 

‘If a village has a transformer, everyone in the village may be counted as having access to electricity – even if there is no physical connection to their home,’ explains Associate Professor Stephanie Hirmer, a lead author from Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science and the Climate Compatible Growth programme. ‘We need an agreed standard of what ‘counts’ as access to electricity that can be updated over time to reflect the reality on the ground. 

As a first step, agencies should provide explicit metadata documenting access definitions. Without these changes, the international community can’t track progress in a meaningful way: we’re left in the dark in more ways than one.’

The authors add that while energy access is therefore uncertain for this group and may be overreported, these statistics are often taken at face value and used to guide significant policy decisions. 

‘These data discrepancies have deep implications for addressing the electrification challenge,’ says Associate Professor Julia Tomei, a lead author from University College London. ‘In Togo for example, if policy makers used the World Bank data, they might stick with their current policy mix for electricity access – since the numbers look very positive. But if they used IEA data instead, which show a decline in access, they might choose a different electrification strategy.’ 

Alt text
Comparison of country-level electrification data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank for 2015–2021.

The authors conclude that it’s now crucial to look more critically at the data and ensure it is accurately reflecting realities on the ground in order to continue making progress towards SDG7: “ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”. 

The research team is part of the Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) programme, and brings together researchers from the University of Oxford Department of Engineering Science and Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University College London, University of Wuppertal, Imperial College London, Technical University of Munich and KTH Royal Institute of Technology.