Outputs
In addition to peer-reviewed journal articles, the Smith School team publishes working papers, reports and policy briefs to provide timely public access to results emerging from our research, to promote discussion and to inform debate.
Policymakers face a crossroads of “megatrends” including a revived focus on industrial policy, weaponisation of trade, and climate goals that are perceived to be increasingly challenging. Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and export-import banks (EXIMs) play a bridging role in aligning climate ambition and economic competitiveness, ensuring that export policies support both sustainability and growth. Aligning domestic climate policies with export policies allows for the advancement of climate goals while also addressing economic growth objectives and punitive trade policies. In this Policy Brief, we develop a set of metrics to help assess whether domestic climate policy and export climate policy are aligned, and apply this to rank 19 countries with the largest ECAs, complementing our analysis with case studies of best practice.
This study by Dr Jose Resendiz and Dr Gireesh Shrimali examines transition finance metrics reported by some of the largest global financial institutions, and conducts a global survey to assess perceptions of metric effectiveness and data availability. It uncovers a significant discrepancy: while widely adopted transition finance metrics - such as climate risk exposure and green financing metrics - are regarded as moderately to highly effective, the underlying data supporting these metrics is often incomplete or fragmented.
Read the paper : Climate transition finance metrics effectiveness: An industry perspective
This study introduces a correlation-based scoring framework to evaluate airline transition plans using data from 84 airlines, representing 75% of industry emissions.
Read the paper : Climate Transition Plans' Assessment in Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Evidence from Airlines.
In this Policy Brief we set out how alliance-driven climate action by ECAs can help galvanise the finance flows needed towards the COP28 target of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, and we consider the case of the UN-convened Net-Zero Export Credit Agencies Alliance (NZECA) launched at COP28, which unites ECAs to commit to science-based targets and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
This study examines the impact of environmental and climate change reputation risk on the cost of equity, emphasising the role of financial analysts’ perceptions of corporate responses to climate change exposures.
This study investigates the financial impact of climate transition risks for Indian power companies, using a forward-looking, microeconomic climate transition risk model.
View paper: Examining Climate Transition Risk for Power Companies: Evidence from India
Authors identify 32 GOP Congressional Representatives who might oppose a full-scale repeal of the IRA’s clean energy subsidies, based on the IRA funds flowing into their district, their prior stance on environmental issues, and their re-election prospects for 2026. Fourteen of them have already declared their opposition in a letter published before the 2024 elections.
Corporate emissions reduction targets often fail to account for regional differences in transition plans. This paper provides an approach for assessing targets against sectoral national transition plans, and applies this method to a sample of 9 electric utility companies. View paper: Assessing Corporate Emissions Reduction Targets Against National Transition Plans
We show that the variation in the probability of default and the company valuation is ultimately related to differences in the assumptions of the transition pathway. This can have significant implications for how financial institutions conduct portfolio selection and climate stress testing.
Relative to fossil fuel power, renewables are sensitive to changes in the cost of capital (CoC). After decades of low financing costs, interest rates have risen sharply in developed economies post-COVID19. We investigate the implications of changing CoC on the competitiveness of renewables, with impacts differing by region. In the U.S., higher rates added 18% to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar photovoltaics’ compared to 9% for combined cycle gas turbines. However, with tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, solar LCOE increased by only 12%. In the future, falls in CoC will have little impact in Europe, given the high cost of fossil fuel power, but in the U.S., China, and India, differences in LCOE between certain renewable technologies and fossil fuels are minimised. Consequently, falls in interest rates or targeted policy interventions that reduce the CoC of renewables can facilitate cost parity with fossil fuels.
Read the paper: Financing costs and the competitiveness of renewable power
The renewable energy entrepreneurs are introducing new business models and value propositions that are changing the way energy is provided. Renewable energy firms offer a much wider range of products and services than traditional utilities.
Case study: Empowering Women through Solar Energy: A Case Study from Pakistan
Using machine learning and economic analysis, this report analyses 3 years of NCQG negotiations and suggests an economically-justifiable climate finance target (range $300B-$9.5Tn/year; median target of $1.7Tn). This is a pre-print. A version of this working paper is under peer review at Nature Communications.
[Working paper 24-01] Download the NCQG calculator
Corporate transition plans (TPs) are increasingly seen as crucial components of assessing the compatibility and legitimacy of corporate commitments to meet climate targets. However, robust, and transparent methods to assess the credibility of disclosed TPs are lacking. Here we propose a novel open-source methodology for assessing the credibility of corporate TPs based on asset-level data to estimate CO2 emission trajectories. Full working paper here: Assessing corporate transition plans using a production asset-based approach
This discussion paper explores the sovereign-bank nexus, showing how physical climate-related financial risks and adaptation measures are currently undervalued by credit rating agencies.
We propose and test a valuation model for sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs)—debt instruments tying the cost of borrowing with corporate sustainability performance—considering the potential stochastic volatility nature of sustainability performance metrics. Full working paper: Sustainability-Linked Bonds: Modelling for Sustainability Performance
This policy brief proposes a robust redesign of the UK's Climate Compatibility Checkpoint for oil and gas licensing in the UK. It recommends six climate tests to align future production with net zero goals, including alignment with the Paris Agreement and UK net zero targets, clean energy investment requirements, and mandatory carbon storage. With a new government facing challenges from existing licenses, this science based framework offers a pathway to manage the sector's decline while supporting energysecurity and a just transition to net zero.
Impact measurement and management (IMM) is becoming increasingly important in the industry to promote transparency and integrity. However, limited research exists on how IMM affects investor decision-making and the supply of impact capital, especially in emerging markets.This report found that the shift towards IMM risks exacerbating existing inequalities in capital access, particularly for investees in emerging markets who need support in measuring and managing impact.
This perspective paper introduces the concept of transition plan dependencies, highlighting the necessity of considering external factors such as economic trends, technological advancements, policy environments, and sectoral
transitions. Read the peer reviewed paper A framework for assessing and managing dependencies in corporate transition plans.
New evidence from the Oxford Smith School shows the UK can get a good deal on Net Zero at minimal cost to people and the economy, with the co-benefits of improved homes, reduced bills and 250,000 more jobs. Policy brief PB-3/24
This report should be read in conjunction with its Technical Annex below. The two documents are synthesised in a Policy Brief for decision makers, Getting a Good Deal on Net Zero, which takes stock of the economic and fiscal impacts, and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions in the UK. Sitting between the CCC’s sixth and seventh carbon budget analyses, this report explores the incidence of investment and cost across government, business and households, using a Total Cost of Ownership approach, and quantifies the first-order regional employment and competitiveness impacts associated with a Net Zero scenario.
Technical Annex - Delivering Net Zero UK – A Stocktake
New policy brief by Nick Eyre, which sets out how these opportunities can be systematically unlocked, beginning in the next 5 years. Policy brief PB-2/24
With a focus on transparency, durability, and innovation, the Oxford Offsetting Principles chart a course for organisations to navigate the evolving landscape of carbon markets and offsetting practices. Key highlights include urgent calls to accelerate emission reductions, close the carbon removal gap, and harness the power of nature-based solutions.
This document should be interpreted and used in line with its purpose and scope to maintain and promote the highest possible climate ambition. This document does not address legal and other obligations relating to climate action.
This paper compares four leading emission pathways for shipping and their underlying technology-policy mixes to identify benchmarks for the assessment of the credibility and feasibility of transition plans in the shipping sector.
We introduce a database to track the evolution of corporate venturing in the alternative proteins sector.
Working Paper No. 23-09
The costs of reaching net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050 are calculated for pathways involving different amounts of carbon capture and storage (CCS). The analysis finds that from 2021 to 2050, taking a low-CCS pathway to net zero emissions could cost US$30 trillion less than taking a high-CCS route – saving approximately a trillion dollars per year.
Working paper 23-08
This report is the first in a series, which thematise the practical nuts-and-bolts considerations which current and future clean energy developers in developing countries face, and how this relates to a just and inclusive transition.
Uncovering a forgotten chapter in solar energy history: in the early 1900s George Cove, a renewable energy inventor was shining a light on alternative energy sources with his revolutionary invention. It harnessed the photovoltaic effect to power small household devices.
Policy brief from the working paper: Britain’s energy demand could be met entirely by wind and solar – both practically and economically. Policy brief PB-2/23
Working paper developed with Oxford Department of Chemistry, in partnership with Unilever, highlights the ‘hidden’ carbon emissions of cleaning products such as laundry detergents and shampoo. It calls for national strategies for sustainable, bio-carbon feedstocks to open up a pathway to net zero for these products and suggests a portfolio of policy options to ‘clean up cleaning’. [Working Paper No. 23-07]
This paper estimates the practical contributions that wind and solar electricity generation could make to decarbonise the GB domestic electricity system, incorporating recent advances in technology and significant declines in cost. It demonstrates that Great Britain’s practical wind and solar resources are more than sufficient to economically meet total net domestic energy needs. [Working paper 23-02]
New model used to study how temperature and rainfall are changing in different countries. This model showed how much global temperatures have gone up and how each country's temperatures are changing in relation to the global trend, helping to understand which countries are most affected by global warming. [Working paper 23-06]
Policy brief PB-1/23