US clean energy subsidies could be impossible to repeal, finds Smith School analysis

President Trump’s efforts to repeal clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could be thwarted by up to 32 Republican Congressional Representatives, according to a new Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment analysis.

The analysis looks at IRA funds flowing into representative’s districts, their prior stance on environmental issues, and re-election prospects for 2026, and identifies those most likely to rebel.

“This is the first study of the specific, quantifiable pressures upon representatives’ votes in a potential IRA repeal, and it could be good news for the climate, and bad news for President Trump,” asserts lead author and climate economics researcher Noah Mihan. 

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed under President Biden in 2022, is the flagship climate change initiative of the United States, providing tax incentives estimated to be worth up to US$ 730 billion while reducing the country’s emissions by up to 11%. President Trump pledged to “terminate” the IRA and end clean energy subsidies in the United States.

Following the 2024 Congressional elections, the new House of Representatives will have a 3-seat GOP majority (220 Republicans to 215 Democrats—218 required for a majority), representing a 2-seat loss for the GOP. This margin is set to shrink even further to 217-215 as a result of several GOP departures for positions in the Trump administration. Fourteen current GOP Representatives already declared their opposition to a clean energy subsidy repeal in a letter published before the 2024 elections.

According to the analysis, potential dissenters include republican stalwarts such as Tony Gonzales, David Valadao and Marianette Miller-Meeks.

As Democratic candidates will almost certainly vote against any repeal of the IRA, Mihan says there are more than enough potential republican rebels to make a repeal of the IRA’s clean energy subsidies unlikely.

 “As Budget Reconciliation negotiations get underway, the Representatives identified in our analysis will be the ones to watch as bellwethers for the future of the IRA, and America’s climate ambitions more broadly,” states Mihan.

Sam Fankhauser, Professor of Climate Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, comments:

“Our analysis might provide a shred of optimism in an otherwise dark time for those concerned for our planet’s future. Because while some politicians might seek to slow the transition to clean energy, that is all they can do. Its future as the world’s energy source of choice is all but certain, due to rapidly falling costs and constantly improving technologies.”