person

Dr François Lafond

Lead Researcher

Profile

François is Deputy Director of the Complexity Economics group, Lead Researcher at the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment, an Oxford Martin fellow, an Associate member of Nuffield college, and an External Faculty at the Complex Systems Hub in Vienna.

François’s main areas of research are in the economics of innovation and productivity, environmental economics, complex systems, and forecasting. Currently, his research interests lie in the macroeconomics of the net zero transition, the structure and evolution of production networks, and the future of technology.

His research has appeared in economics and interdisciplinary journals, and has been featured in books, news articles, and public sector reports.

Publications

Journal (17)

Open

Yang J and others, ‘Measuring Productivity Dispersion: A Parametric Approach Using the Lévy Alpha-Stable Distribution’ [2024] Industrial and Corporate Change dtae021

Goldin I and others, ‘Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?’ (2024) 62 Journal of Economic Literature 196

Mungo L and others, ‘Reconstructing Supply Networks’ (2024) 5 Journal of Physics Complexity 012001

Pangallo M and others, ‘The Unequal Effects of the Health-Economy Tradeoff During the COVID-19 Pandemic’ (2023) 8 Nature Human Behaviour 264

Pichler A and others, ‘Building an Alliance to Map Global Supply Networks’ (2023) 382 Science 270

Mungo L and others, ‘Reconstructing Production Networks Using Machine Learning’ (2023) 148 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

Pichler A and others, ‘Forecasting the Propagation of Pandemic Shocks With a Dynamic Input-Output Model’ (2022) 144 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

Lafond F, Greenwald D and Farmer J, ‘Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II As a Natural Experiment’ (2022) 82 Journal of Economic History

Del Río Chanona R and others, ‘Occupational Mobility and Automation: A Data-Driven Network Model’ (2021) 18 Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Hotte K, Pichler A and Lafond F, ‘The Rise of Science in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies’ (2021) 139 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

del Rio Chanona R and others, ‘Supply and Demand Shocks in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Industry and Occupation Perspective’ (2020) 36 Oxford Review of Economic Policy S94

Way R and others, ‘Wright Meets Markowitz: How Standard Portfolio Theory Changes When Assets Are Technologies Following Experience Curves’ (2019) 101 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 211

Lafond F and Kim D, ‘Long-Run Dynamics of the U.S. Patent Classification System’ (2019) 29 Journal of Evolutionary Economics 631

Medo M and Lafond F, ‘Early Identification of Important Patents: Design and Validation of Citation Network Metrics’ (2018) 146 Technological Forecasting and Social Change 644

Lafond F and others, ‘How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress? A Method for Making Distributional Forecasts’ (2017) 128 Technological Forecasting and Social Change 104

Farmer J and Lafond F, ‘How Predictable Is Technological Progress?’ [2016] Research Policy

Lafond F, ‘Self-Organization of Knowledge Economies’ (2015) 52 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 150

c-report (2)

Open

Pichler A, Lafond F and Farmer J, ‘Technological Interdependencies Predict Innovation Dynamics’ (2020)

Yang J and others, ‘Measuring Productivity Dispersion: A Parametric Approach Using the’

Pre-print (22)

Open

Mungo L and others, ‘Reconstructing Supply Networks’

Pangallo M and others, ‘The Unequal Effects of the Health-Economy Tradeoff During the COVID-19 Pandemic’

Pichler A and others, ‘In and Out of Lockdown: Propagation of Supply and Demand Shocks in a Dynamic Input-Output Model’

Pichler A and others, ‘In and Out of Lockdown: Propagation of Supply and Demand Shocks in a Dynamic Input-Output Model’

Pichler A and others, ‘Production Networks and Epidemic Spreading: How to Restart the UK Economy?’

Hötte K, Pichler A and Lafond F, ‘The Rise of Science in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies’

del Rio-Chanona R and others, ‘Supply and Demand Shocks in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Industry and Occupation Perspective’

Pichler A, Lafond F and Farmer J, ‘Technological Interdependencies Predict Innovation Dynamics’

Lafond F, Greenwald D and Farmer J, ‘Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II As a Natural Experiment’

Pichler A and others, ‘Production Networks and Epidemic Spreading: How to Restart the UK Economy?’

Pichler A, Lafond F and Farmer J, ‘Technological Interdependencies Predict Innovation Dynamics’

Yang J and others, ‘Measuring Productivity Dispersion: A Parametric Approach Using the L\’{e}vy Alpha-Stable Distribution’

del Rio-Chanona R and others, ‘Automation and Occupational Mobility: A Data-Driven Network Model’

Yang J and others, ‘Measuring Productivity Dispersion: A Parametric Approach Using the Lévy Alpha-Stable Distribution’

Mariani M, Medo M and Lafond F, ‘Early Identification of Important Patents through Network Centrality’

Way R and others, ‘Wright Meets Markowitz: How Standard Portfolio Theory Changes When Assets Are Technologies Following Experience Curves’

Lafond F and others, ‘How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress? A Method for Making Distributional Forecasts’

Lafond F and Kim D, ‘Long-Run Dynamics of the U.S. Patent Classification System’

Lafond F and Kim D, ‘Long-Run Dynamics of the U.S. Patent Classification System’

Way R and others, ‘Wright Meets Markowitz: How Standard Portfolio Theory Changes When Assets Are Technologies Following Experience Curves’

Farmer J and Lafond F, ‘How Predictable Is Technological Progress?’

Farmer J and Lafond F, ‘How Predictable Is Technological Progress?’