Study finds 1,700 climate change related deaths in a single European city-region
- Deaths occurred during heatwaves but also in milder weather
- Adaptation to heat has saved at least 700 lives in the region, but deaths will keep increasing as temperatures rise
- The six highest-emitting companies globally caused at least one additional death in the region per summer
1,700 peopled died from heat-related deaths caused by climate change in one Northern European city-region between 1969 and 2018 according to a new Oxford Smith School study. Those 1,700 deaths account for almost one third of all heat-related deaths in the time period. The study focused on the Swiss canton of Zurich, known for freezing winters and snowy alpine views.
“We find that heat-related deaths were already occurring as a result of climate change as early as 1969, but that the numbers of heat-related deaths have increased substantially over time, and despite improvements in our resilience to heat,” explains lead author Dr Rupert Stuart-Smith, Senior Research Fellow in Climate Science and the Law at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, and Deputy Director of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme.
The authors find that improvements in heat resilience, including more widespread use of air conditioning and improved healthcare systems, and better awareness of health risks, may have saved approximately 700 lives since 2004. “Our results point to the potential effectiveness of climate adaptation measures. However, more people are dying than ever before because of climate change which is pushing temperatures ever higher. The best way to avoid these deaths in future remains rapid and sustained emission reductions, delivered by quickly moving away from fossil fuels and animal agriculture” says Dr Stuart-Smith
The study also concludes that, while climate change related deaths peak during heatwaves, many occur outside of them, because climate change is raising temperatures above the “mortality threshold” even on comparatively cooler days. “Analyses that focus on heatwaves alone do not capture the full effect of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths,” adds Dr Stuart-Smith.
The authors also found that the emissions of the six highest-emitting investor and state-owned companies globally caused, on average, at least one additional death per summer in Zürich since 2004, and that similar findings would be expected for many other locations worldwide.
A preprint of this study was cited by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in its landmark decision in the case of KlimaSeniorinnen v Switzerland. It was cited in support of the ECtHR’s finding that the implementation of adaptation measures is insufficient to offset the increased number of heat-related deaths driven by rising temperatures and emission reductions are therefore required for Switzerland to meet its legal obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights.
Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: a heat-mortality case study in Zürich published today in Climatic Change.
