Outputs
In addition to peer-reviewed journal articles, the Smith School team publishes working papers, reports and policy briefs to provide timely public access to results emerging from our research, to promote discussion and to inform debate.
The race to build AI-ready cloud computing infrastructure is in full swing, but a stark disconnect is emerging between announced data centre capacity and “steel in the ground.” Media and markets are expecting a rapid, exponential ramp-up of AI infrastructure. This white paper from the Oxford Smith School and Marex tells a different story: a rollout that is delayed, lumpy, and constrained by physical realities.
A UK powered fully by renewable energy could save all households up to £441 a year on their energy bills. In comparison, maximising oil & gas extraction from the North Sea would save households a modest £16 - £82 per year - and only if the tax revenues collected were distributed to households to offset their energy bills.
Appendices: Outputs & calculations [PDF]
https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2026-03/North_Sea_Rapid_Analysis_Output_and_Calculations_March2026_OxfordSmithSchool.pdf
The views expressed in this paper represent those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Oxford Smith School or any other institution or funder. The paper is intended to promote discussion and to provide public access to results emerging from our research. It may have been submitted for publication in academic journals. It has been reviewed by at least one internal referee before publication. It draws on academic research to provide stakeholders with relevant quantitative estimates in a timely manner, and to contribute reliable statistics to inform public debate.
This paper develops a forward-looking framework to quantify expected systemic economic losses from physical climate risks and applies it to Indian firm-level data as a case study.
Carbon credits face the fun-damental challenge of both (i) imperfect information about project performance and (ii) asymmetric information between buyers and sellers. We present a generalised model of the carbon performance of projects—the net impact upon atmospheric greenhouse gases rela-tive to a hypothetical counterfactual—encompassing all project types.
Delivering the UK’s legally binding net zero target by 2050 will require rapid, coordinated action. Despite progress, rising climate risks, system complexity and policy uncertainty threaten delivery. Strengthening system resilience is essential to meet climate, energy security and affordability objectives. This Policy Brief sets out and details actions under three high level pillars for policy action: reducing energy demand, scaling energy storage and reforming electricity markets. This Policy Brief summarises the outcomes of the ’Energy and Environment’ stream of the inaugural Oxford Policy Engagement Network (OPEN) Forum on Risk and Resilience. The 2025 Forum brought together policy professionals from multiple UK government departments and agencies, representatives from Oxford City and Oxfordshire County Councils, businesses, and funders, as well as research professionals from numerous universities and institutes in life, medical, physical, and social sciences, and the humanities.
Although progress has been made in emissions accounting for businesses, the treatment of emissions facilitated or enabled by Professional Services Providers (PSPs) including law firms, consulting firms and advertising agencies - known as serviced emissions – remains an important policy gap.
The Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) is the world’s leading framework for measuring and reporting GHG emissions, underpinning other climate-related standards. It is undergoing its first major revision in 20 years, creating a critical opportunity to strengthen the accuracy, coverage, and fairness of emissions accounting methodologies for organisations.
This policy brief provides three actionable recommendations to address this policy gap in the forthcoming GHGP revision, and support PSPs in accounting for serviced emissions.
This brief identifies three structural barriers to collaboration: regulatory friction, institutional incentive misalignment, and information asymmetry. It also proposes targeted solutions, including practical collaboration frameworks, curated case studies, and country-technology pilots. The climate transition cannot wait for institutions to organise themselves. It is time to move from complementarity in theory to coordination in practice.
Under its Clean Power 2030 target, the UK government wants to efficiently supply the country with renewables-based electricity. Achieving this requires reforms to address growing transmission constraints and regional mismatches between where renewable electricity is generated and where it is consumed. An efficient electricity system is not necessarily a fair electricity system. Households already experience uneven retail electricity bills across the UK, with up to 15% difference by geographic location, and another 22% due to the choice of payment method or contract. Reforms that increase regional differentiation, while efficient in theory, could amplify these disparities. We need dedicated policies that address equitable bills for low-income households, to work alongside efficient and robust power market arrangements. This brief argues that a social tariff could be an effective way to protect vulnerable customers from rising costs. Paired with policies like energy efficiency upgrades, incentives for distributed energy resources, targeted infrastructure investments, and equitable transition mechanisms, this approach can ensure that market reforms deliver affordable and clean power.
Renewable energy can power economies and empower communities, but these benefits need to be shared fairly. This report highlights the economic benefits of renewables and shows how community funds, co-ownership and inclusive consultation can transform the clean energy transition into a just transition.
This roadmap identifies and builds on existing trends and gaps in the regulation of carbon markets and establishes six key pillars for its design or reform. It suggests that governments seeking to regulate their approach to carbon markets should first begin with identifying a clear role for carbon markets to ensure they provide an efficient and effective financing framework and align with an end state of domestic and global net-zero.
Minerals-rich economies must balance climate goals with industrial development. We present a model in which policy timing and credibility shape outcomes along the mining–refining–clean-tech chain. Read The Economics of Critical Minerals and Climate Transition Policy.
This paper explores how external dependencies—factors outside a company’s direct control—shape the credibility of corporate transition plans (CTPs). It proposes a structured approach to identify and prioritize these dependencies, supported by illustrative tools and examples from steel, utilities, and chemicals sectors. Read the full paper: Credibility Beyond Control: Corporate Climate Transition Plans and Dependencies.
This study explores how different legislative approaches influence corporate investment behaviours
from a microeconomic perspective.
Read the paper: National Net-Zero Legislation and Corporate Asset Allocations
This study investigates the transmission of carbon risk through supply chain networks and its impact on a firm’s implied cost of equity capital (ICOE), focusing on the Indian market from 2014 to 2024, one of the world’s largest and most rapidly developing economies, characterised by high climate transition risk and a highly interconnected supply chain structure. Read the paper: Paths of Risk: Carbon Transmission through Supply Chain Networks and the Cost of Equity Capital
This report provides an overview of the state of CDR development in the UK. It begins with an analysis of the research and development landscape and the role of UK-based companies in advancing CDR technologies. It then explores voluntary carbon market activity in the UK, followed by an assessment of national policy frameworks and governance structures supporting CDR.
This report analyses innovation activity represented by patenting data for two carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies — bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), referred to collectively as geological CDR — to shed light on the countries that might be best positioned to lead the market for relevant technologies to capture growth opportunities while supporting global climate goals.
This brief outlines how companies can integrate justice and equity into their climate strategies to ensure a just transition that supports long-term, socially sustainable net zero goals. It presents a seven-step roadmap to help businesses identify and engage with groups affected by transition plans, co-create fair outcomes, and strengthen resilience. Developed by the Oxford Net Zero Youth Advisory Board, it emphasises procedural justice and highlights how a just transition risk can reduce risks, unlock opportunities, and build public support for climate action.
University of Oxford Sustainable Finance Programme Working Paper.
This document outline four key principles for how actors should conceptualise the relationship between Article 6 and neutralisation outcomes to forge a clear pathway to a durable net zero.
This guidance supports actors to engage with Article 6 responsibly, ensuring climate integrity, upholding high environmental and social safeguards and enhancing ambition in line with the broader goals of the Paris Agreement. The document outlines three core Principles and associated criteria.
For the PACM to help rather than hinder the delivery of net zero we recommend that separate targets to reduce and remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere be initially adopted before transitioning the mechanism to one that finances only greenhouse gas removals, and ultimately to one that finances only permanent removals.
This letter was delivered to the offices of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Chancellor of the Exchequer and Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero on Wednesday 4 June 2025. The authors, leading environment economists from the University of Oxford, the University of Cambridge, and the London School of Economics and Political Science, provide evidence and data to suggest that with careful policymaking there is no trade-off between climate action and economic growth.
We assess the most commonly discussed policies using a set of criteria for policy evaluation (Stringency, Efficiency, Feasibility and Strategic Fit, with a range of sub-questions). We also evaluate policy combinations and interactions, with a particular focus on containing government expenditure and ensuring that policy combinations support technology development at different technology readiness levels.
Legal scholars write to express concern regarding an amendment in the ‘Omnibus Simplification Package’ (Omnibus) proposed by the European Commission, which would significantly weaken Article 22 of the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). The proposed amendment would weaken Article 22 by removing the obligation for Climate Transition Plans to be ‘put into effect’. The authors strongly advise against this proposed weakening of Article 22.
Policymakers face a crossroads of “megatrends” including a revived focus on industrial policy, weaponisation of trade, and climate goals that are perceived to be increasingly challenging. Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and export-import banks (EXIMs) play a bridging role in aligning climate ambition and economic competitiveness, ensuring that export policies support both sustainability and growth. Aligning domestic climate policies with export policies allows for the advancement of climate goals while also addressing economic growth objectives and punitive trade policies. In this Policy Brief, we develop a set of metrics to help assess whether domestic climate policy and export climate policy are aligned, and apply this to rank 19 countries with the largest ECAs, complementing our analysis with case studies of best practice.
This study by Dr Jose Resendiz and Dr Gireesh Shrimali examines transition finance metrics reported by some of the largest global financial institutions, and conducts a global survey to assess perceptions of metric effectiveness and data availability. It uncovers a significant discrepancy: while widely adopted transition finance metrics - such as climate risk exposure and green financing metrics - are regarded as moderately to highly effective, the underlying data supporting these metrics is often incomplete or fragmented.
Read the paper : Climate transition finance metrics effectiveness: An industry perspective
This study introduces a correlation-based scoring framework to evaluate airline transition plans using data from 84 airlines, representing 75% of industry emissions.
Read the paper : Climate Transition Plans' Assessment in Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Evidence from Airlines.
In this Policy Brief we set out how alliance-driven climate action by ECAs can help galvanise the finance flows needed towards the COP28 target of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, and we consider the case of the UN-convened Net-Zero Export Credit Agencies Alliance (NZECA) launched at COP28, which unites ECAs to commit to science-based targets and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
This study examines the impact of environmental and climate change reputation risk on the cost of equity, emphasising the role of financial analysts’ perceptions of corporate responses to climate change exposures.
This study investigates the financial impact of climate transition risks for Indian power companies, using a forward-looking, microeconomic climate transition risk model.
View paper: Examining Climate Transition Risk for Power Companies: Evidence from India
Authors identify 32 GOP Congressional Representatives who might oppose a full-scale repeal of the IRA’s clean energy subsidies, based on the IRA funds flowing into their district, their prior stance on environmental issues, and their re-election prospects for 2026. Fourteen of them have already declared their opposition in a letter published before the 2024 elections.
Corporate emissions reduction targets often fail to account for regional differences in transition plans. This paper provides an approach for assessing targets against sectoral national transition plans, and applies this method to a sample of 9 electric utility companies. View paper: Assessing Corporate Emissions Reduction Targets Against National Transition Plans
We show that the variation in the probability of default and the company valuation is ultimately related to differences in the assumptions of the transition pathway. This can have significant implications for how financial institutions conduct portfolio selection and climate stress testing.
Relative to fossil fuel power, renewables are sensitive to changes in the cost of capital (CoC). After decades of low financing costs, interest rates have risen sharply in developed economies post-COVID19. We investigate the implications of changing CoC on the competitiveness of renewables, with impacts differing by region. In the U.S., higher rates added 18% to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar photovoltaics’ compared to 9% for combined cycle gas turbines. However, with tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, solar LCOE increased by only 12%. In the future, falls in CoC will have little impact in Europe, given the high cost of fossil fuel power, but in the U.S., China, and India, differences in LCOE between certain renewable technologies and fossil fuels are minimised. Consequently, falls in interest rates or targeted policy interventions that reduce the CoC of renewables can facilitate cost parity with fossil fuels.
Read the paper: Financing costs and the competitiveness of renewable power
The renewable energy entrepreneurs are introducing new business models and value propositions that are changing the way energy is provided. Renewable energy firms offer a much wider range of products and services than traditional utilities.
Case study: Empowering Women through Solar Energy: A Case Study from Pakistan
Using machine learning and economic analysis, this report analyses 3 years of NCQG negotiations and suggests an economically-justifiable climate finance target (range $300B-$9.5Tn/year; median target of $1.7Tn). This is a pre-print. A version of this working paper is under peer review at Nature Communications.
[Working paper 24-01] Download the NCQG calculator
Corporate transition plans (TPs) are increasingly seen as crucial components of assessing the compatibility and legitimacy of corporate commitments to meet climate targets. However, robust, and transparent methods to assess the credibility of disclosed TPs are lacking. Here we propose a novel open-source methodology for assessing the credibility of corporate TPs based on asset-level data to estimate CO2 emission trajectories. Full working paper here: Assessing corporate transition plans using a production asset-based approach
This discussion paper explores the sovereign-bank nexus, showing how physical climate-related financial risks and adaptation measures are currently undervalued by credit rating agencies.
We propose and test a valuation model for sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs)—debt instruments tying the cost of borrowing with corporate sustainability performance—considering the potential stochastic volatility nature of sustainability performance metrics. Full working paper: Sustainability-Linked Bonds: Modelling for Sustainability Performance
This policy brief proposes a robust redesign of the UK's Climate Compatibility Checkpoint for oil and gas licensing in the UK. It recommends six climate tests to align future production with net zero goals, including alignment with the Paris Agreement and UK net zero targets, clean energy investment requirements, and mandatory carbon storage. With a new government facing challenges from existing licenses, this science based framework offers a pathway to manage the sector's decline while supporting energysecurity and a just transition to net zero.
Impact measurement and management (IMM) is becoming increasingly important in the industry to promote transparency and integrity. However, limited research exists on how IMM affects investor decision-making and the supply of impact capital, especially in emerging markets.This report found that the shift towards IMM risks exacerbating existing inequalities in capital access, particularly for investees in emerging markets who need support in measuring and managing impact.